Growth and Decline in Population and the Impact on Real Estate
Population in the US as Seen by the Census Bureau:
As we know, the US Census Bureau is needed to undertake census data that is employed to help determine many positions under Federal law. Some of this data impacts the number of Representatives in Congress. Other data is used to determine allocation of funds, etc.
Some Census Bureau data informs the business and non-business parts of society as to growth in cities and throughout the country. Such positions impact real estate values and activity.
Recently the Census Bureau published interesting data illustrating growth and decline in cities throughout the US.
Look who is NOT losing the larger amounts of Population:
“Many cities at the core of large U.S. metropolitan areas were no longer among the largest population losers in 2022, reversing a pattern seen during the first full year of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021.
Today’s release of Vintage 2022 population estimates for cities and towns shows that the magnitude of population loss for some large cities decreased between 2021 and 2022.
See, for example, the following charts that depict the growth in many large cities in the southern part of the US.
Large Southern Cities Lead Nation in Population Growth
Note the major growth in Texas:
“Texas Continues to Top the Charts With Fastest-Growing Cities
MAY 18, 2023 — Nine of the nation’s 15 fastest-growing cities were in the South, according to Vintage 2022 Population Estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. Of the nine fastest-growing cities in the South, six were in Texas. New estimates for metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas and for housing units at the national, state and county levels were also released today.
“Georgetown, Texas, remained the fastest-growing city by percent change in 2022, with the highest rate of growth among all U.S. cities and towns with at least 50,000 people. It wasn’t the only city to retain its distinction over the year, however,” said Crystal Delbé, a statistician in the Census Bureau’s Population Division. “New York remained the nation’s largest city, despite its recent population decline. At 8.3 million, its population was more than twice that of the next largest city, Los Angeles, with a population of nearly 4 million.”
Following the population increase of 14.4% in Georgetown, Texas, was Santa Cruz, California, with a 12.5% increase, adding roughly 7,000 people to its population. The next three fastest-growing cities were also in Texas — Kyle, Leander, and Little Elm.”
About half of the nation’s fastest-growing cities just over a year into the pandemic (July 1, 2021) remained among the top-15 gainers one year later (July 1, 2022), growing at an even faster rate.”
Where the growth will take place in the next 10 years is also substantially influenced by political issues. The coming 2024 election may also impact such growth.
Professor Mark Lee Levine,
University of Denver