Population Problems: We are Shrinking!

Data released in the 2024 Revision United Nations World Population Prospects and captured by Visual Capitalist presents some very concerning information as to the reduction in birth rates throughout most of the world. 

This data shows that almost 3/4ths of the countries in the world are not replacing their population.  That is, their birth rates are below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman.

It was predicted long ago that there would be issues on the birth rate replacement in China, when China supported the restriction of one child per couple.  That is, the Chinese Government was concerned with the growing population in China.  Thus, they put in place the policy of limiting a couple to one child.  This policy was “successful” in that the population replacement rate dropped dramatically.  The policy was too “successful.”  Realizing this “over correction,” China had to change its position limiting births.

 Although this policy in China was reversed starting in 2016, this change has not cured their declining population.  It now sits with a fertility rate of just over one child per woman, making the country’s fertility rate one of the lowest in the world.  (China apparently achieved what it wanted, a low population growth.  Of course, the one child rule was put in place in China when the government was very concerned with its growing population.)

Although, as mentioned, most countries are not meeting the replacement number for their population, Sub-Saharan Africa has a replacement rate of over 4.0, creating other problems in Africa.

The United States is now at a fertility rate of about 1.62, making it substantially under the replacement requirement of 2.1. According to recent data from the CDC and reported by Visual Capitalist, among others, the US birth rate in 2025 is substantially lower than the peak in the US which was in 2007.  Compared to 2007, the US is now down 23%.

There are many implications in the US and other countries with the reduced birth rate.  This includes, among other issues, less workers in the workforce, major reduction of employment taxes, increased concern with social security funding, along with funding needed for Medicare and Medicaid, etc.

What have we learned?  It is important for governments to consider the impact of lower birth rates.  However, when a government reacts, there must be careful consideration to the current and long-term implications of the action taken.  The current posture for China is a good example of how a mistake in legislation can create long-term adverse consequences.  The US, along with most other countries, must consider what steps should be undertaken to address the lower replacement rate, such as the current US rate of under 1.7 children.

“For more analysis on the population issue in countries throughout the US, see Levine, Mark Lee, “International Real Estate.”

Dr. Mark Lee Levine, Professor, University of Denver.